May 30, 2026
War On Iran: – U.S. Ratcheting Fails
A typical U.S. tactic is to ratchet things up in a conflict. This is done by continuously introducing additional hostile measures. Red lines get passed over bit by bit with the hope that each step is too tiny for the other side to really hit back. The war in Ukraine continues to be run like that.
Two days ago the U.S. attacked two Iranian boats which it had claimed were laying mines near Bandar Abbas. (There is zero evidence that Iran has laid ANY mines in the Strait.)
Iran did not allow for the ratchet to click. It immediately hit back.
Statement from CENTCOM on Recent Iranian Aggression – CENTCOM, May 28 2026
TAMPA, Fla. – At 10:17 p.m. ET on May 27, Iran launched a ballistic missile toward Kuwait that was successfully intercepted by Kuwaiti forces.
“Successfully intercepted …”
Americans Injured in Iranian Missile Strike on Kuwaiti Air Base – Bloomberg, May 30 2026
An Iranian ballistic missile strike on a Kuwaiti air base within the past 24 hours caused minor injuries to several Americans and seriously damaged two MQ-9 Reaper strike drones, …
That sounds like a spot on hit.
Kuwaiti air defenses intercepted the Fateh-110 missile, but falling debris struck the Ali Al Salem air base, according to a person with direct knowledge of the attack, who requested anonymity to describe details that aren’t public.
“Falling debris …”. Like in ‘The missile was falling, then there was debris.’
Interpretation:
أَبُو عِرْفَانِ پارسی @A_E_P_1979 – 11:20 UTC · May 30, 2026
It seems Iran’s recent attack on Kuwait inflicted casualties on the Americans. This is significant for two reasons.
1. Americans are still stationed in the Gulf and do not want to leave.
2. Iran showed the Americans that, unlike before, attacking Iran “under the threshold” will not grant them immunity, and Iran is willing to escalate massively even at the cost of war. Creating a credibility for its threats.
This attack is very significant, in my opinion, because it will directly affect the negotiations and erase any delusions the Americans might have.
Well, hopefully.
I still expect another massive U.S. attack on Iran combined with an unrealistic attempt to gain (fire-)control over the Strait of Hormuz.